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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 240525

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.


The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along
18W from 03N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to 
this wave is noted from 05N to 14N between 15W and 23W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 01N to 19N, moving W
at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N
between 44W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W from Venezuela northward to
21N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 10N to 15N between 60W and 64W.  

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 10N-21N. This wave, 
in conjunction with an upper level trough extending across the SE
Bahamas to the central Caribbean, is producing a large area of 
showers and tstms over eastern Cuba, western Hispaniola and the 
regional waters. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, and extends from the SE 
Gulf across central America into the eastern north Pacific region.
Scattered to showers and tstms are noted across the Yucatan
peninsula as well as Guatemala.


The monsoon trough extends off western Africa near 18N17W to 
06.5N26.5W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N26.5W to 03N44W. Outside
of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 26W and 41W.



An upper-level low centered near 21N98W is helping to induce some
showers and tstms across the SW Gulf as well as portions of 
southern Mexico. The low will drift westward through Sun night, 
and continue to enhance convection across this area. 

A ridge of high pressure prevails across the northern waters. 
Southeast return flow will prevail over the western Gulf the next
several days. A trough will move west off the western coast of 
the Yucatan Peninsula each night, which will enhance overnight 
winds over much of the southwestern gulf waters.


Two tropical waves are propagating across the area, one moving
across the central Caribbean, and another tropical wave is moving
across the eastern Caribbean. Please, see Tropical Waves section 
for more details. Expect increasing showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in association with the passage of these tropical 

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the central and eastern 
Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to
moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Little change is expected  
through early next week. Areal coverage of fresh to strong trades
will decrease afterwards as high pressure north of the area
weakens. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft over the south- 
central Caribbean with the strongest winds. Nocturnal winds will
pulse to fresh to strong winds the next couple of nights in the 
Gulf of Honduras.


High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 31N51W extends a ridge 
westward across the forecast area. Fresh to locally strong trade 
winds prevail along the southern periphery of the ridge, 
S of 20N W of 40W. This high pressure will slowly shift westward 
tonight, then remain nearly stationary near 30N55W while 
weakening through Tue night. The weakening of the area of high
pressure will loosen the pressure gradient, with diminishing 
winds and subsiding seas over this area through early this 
upcoming week. Nocturnal winds will continue to pulse to fresh to
strong the next several nights off Hispaniola.

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