AXNT20 KNHC 241207
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Kirk centered near 9.5N 37.4W at 24/0900 UTC
or 830 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at
21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N-14N between
34W-41W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.
Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 32.6N 48.6W at 24/0900
UTC or 1100 nm W of the Azores moving S at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is E of the center from 26N-37N between 40W-49W.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
but Leslie is forecast to strengthen when it merges with a frontal
system in two to three days.See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from 03N-16N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave corresponds nicely with a maximum in
TPW imagery. Model analyses depict an associated 700 mb trough
along 50W. Scattered showers are located from 07N-14N between
A tropical wave extends its axis along 94W from 08N-21N, moving
west at 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with this wave is well
depicted in model guidance, and TPW imagery shows abundant
moisture in its environment. Widely scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm of the axis over the Bay of Campeche and S
Mexico. Much stronger convection is over the E Pacific.
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
09N27W. The ITCZ begins near 09N27W to 09N34W, then resumes west
of T.S. Kirk near 07N40W to 06N50W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave and Kirk, scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 06N-13N between
14W-18W. Similar convection is from 04N-07N between 19W-26W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper-level low is centered over the N Yucatan Peninsula near
22N89W. Scattered showers prevail over the Yucatan Peninsula and
the SE Gulf of Mexico S of 25N and E of 90W. A large upper-level
high is centered over N Mexico near 24N106W. Northerly upper-
level flow is over the W Gulf.
A tropical wave is moving across the Bay of Campeche with showers.
Refer to the section above for more details. Elsewhere, a
stationary front extends from E Texas near 30N94W to 25N94W to
near Tampico Mexico at 22N98W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the front N of 23N.
Expect the front to dissipate today. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail across most of the basin
through the middle of next week. A surface trough will develop
over the Yucatan peninsula each evening, shift W over the SW Gulf
each night, then dissipate by the morning hours. Moderate to fresh
winds will accompany this trough.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft
continues to enhance scattered moderate to strong convection is over
the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 78W-84W. Elsewhere, scattered
showers are over the NW Caribbean. Expect moderate to fresh winds
will prevail over the central Caribbean through today.
Currently, there is a tropical depression, a tropical wave, and a
subtropical storm over the Atlantic. See the sections above for
A broad 1011 mb low is centered near 27N71W. A surface trough
runs from 31N68W to the low center to 27N78W. Scattered showers
are along the trough and near the low. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become slightly more conducive for development
during the next couple of days while the system moves west-
northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday,
upper-level winds are expected to increase, limiting the chances
for additional development, while the system moves northward near
the southeastern United States coast. This feature has a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
To the east, a weakening stationary front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N41W to 25N46W to 24N57W. Scattered showers are
within 45 nm on either side of the front.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 41N24W.
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