000
AXNT20 KNHC 191018
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 04.5N32W.
The ITCZ extends from 04.5N32W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 01.5N to 07.5N and 
east of 30W, and from 04.5N to 07.5N between 30W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak front is drifting eastward, and extends from the Florida 
Panhandle near Apalachicola to near 26N93W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm SE of this
boundary east of 92W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data 
indicated that strong winds are associated with the strongest 
convection. Meanwhile, strong thunderstorms have shifted westward
off the Yucatan peninsula and across the eastern and into the
central Bay of Campeche. Fresh southeasterly winds and seas of 
4-7 ft are found north of Yucatan, south of 25N. Moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the 
remainder of the basin. A large area of haze and smoke due to 
agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the Gulf 
west of 87W and the Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, active weather along and ahead of the front is 
being supported by a mid to upper-level trough across the 
southeast U.S. The front and associated weather will shift E-SE 
through Mon, when the front will dissipate across the SE Gulf. 
Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh return flow will prevail 
this morning then gradually diminish through Mon. Meanwhile, a 
large area of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico 
continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 
Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will develop again across
the W Gulf Tue through Thu night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic continues to extend
westward along 24N/25N into the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics supports fresh to strong E to SE winds to 30 kt across the
Gulf of Honduras, and fresh to locally strong trade winds in the 
south-central Caribbean, as confirmed by overnight scatterometer
satellite data. These winds are sustaining seas of 6-9 ft, with 
the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia and the Bay Islands. 
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are 
present in the north- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 
Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues 
across areas of the northwestern Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras. A middle to upper-level trough lingers from the NE
Caribbean to the SW basin, and is generally producing dry and
stable conditions over the basin. However, scattered showers are
seen across the extreme NE Caribbean and across SE portions south
of 12N. 

For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Honduras will become
moderate to fresh today through Mon as the pressure gradient
weakens across the western basin. Fresh to strong winds will 
pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia 
through early Mon then shift eastward to offshore of NW Venezuela 
through Tue night. A vigorous middle to upper-level trough will 
dig southward across the western Caribbean Mon night through Thu, 
and support very active weather over central portions E of 80W Tue
through Thu. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America 
continues across the Gulf of Honduras and areas of the 
northwestern Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough over the SE United States is supporting 
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters north of 
the NW Bahamas, ahead of a weak front across the NE Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 3-4 ft are 
occurring north of 28N and west of 76W. Farther east, a surface
trough extends from 31N56W southwestward to 26N69W, while a 
narrow high pressure ridge extends E to W to the south of the 
trough along 24N/25N and into the NW Bahamas. E of the trough, 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is observed north of
24N and between 47W and 55W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the north Atlantic. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5-7 ft are 
evident south of the ridge, and generally south of 20N. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will shift eastward
through late Sun as it weakens further, allowing the ridge to 
build modestly into the region E of 72W Mon and Tue. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will move from the NW waters and
offshore of NE Florida southeastward through this evening, ahead 
of an upper level trough. Behind this feature, a new front will 
sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida 
early Mon, and move southeastward and stall from near 31N72W to SE
Florida late Tue. A trough will develop southeast of the weakening
front and extend into the central Bahamas early on Wed, and drift
eastward through Thu night. Low pressure is expected to form 
along the trough near 24N68W Thu evening and move NE. 

$$
Stripling