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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171701
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from 20N 
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. 
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is 
from 06N to 14N between Africa and 25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 21N 
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 420 nm on either side 
of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N 
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. 
Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is 
within 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 100 
nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 17N to 20N. Other 
isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 13N 
northward from Jamaica westward. This tropical wave is forecast 
to move through Central America during the next couple of days. 
The wave will continue into the southwestern corner of the Gulf 
of Mexico, where it is possible that an area of low pressure may 
form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is 
possible, while it moves northwestward, through the southwestern 
Gulf of Mexico, through the weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 19N16W, to 16N20W 12N30W 09N42W. The ITCZ is along 
08N47W 07N54W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally 
strong is from 10N southward between 29W and 60W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad and weak surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A 
1016 mb high pressure center is near 28N91W. The surface 
pressure gradient is flat and weak.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the 
southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic 
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico and parts of inland Mexico 
28N southward from 102W eastward. An inland frontal boundary is 
passing through the southern sections of Georgia and Alabama, 
toward central Mississippi. Precipitation: scattered moderate to 
isolated strong is between the upper level cyclonic circulation 
center and the coast of Mexico between 92W and 96W. Isolated 
moderate to locally strong is within 75 nm of the coast of 
Mexico from 24N southward, and from 26N to 29N between 82W in 
Florida and 88W.

Moderate ENE-NE winds are offshore NW and W parts of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Light to occasionally moderate anticyclonic winds are 
elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the 
eastern Bay of Campeche and in the W Gulf waters. The sea 
heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the remainder of the Gulf 
of Mexico.

A 1016 mb high pressure centered near 28N91W will drift ESE in 
the north-central Gulf through tonight. A stalled front across 
the NE Gulf coast states will sink S and settle north of the 
northern Gulf today and linger in this area through Thu. This 
will increase winds across the northeast and north-central Gulf 
with moderate westerly winds. A tropical wave in Honduras and 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across 
Central America during the next couple of days and emerge in the 
Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure may form on 
Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible, 
while it moves NW, into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through 
the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that 
are from the Windward Passage westward. Comparatively drier air 
in subsidence in water vapor imagery covers the remainder of the 
area.

A weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker easterly 
trade winds, in most of the Caribbean Sea. The exceptions are: 
locally fresh to strong trade winds off N Colombia and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela, and fresh to local strong winds in the Gulf 
of Honduras. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the 
south central Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras. The sea 
heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the remainder of the 
area. 

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia, 
and beyond the border of Costa Rica/Nicaragua, into the eastern 
Pacific Ocean. No significant deep convective precipitation is 
related directly to the monsoon trough. 

A tropical wave in the far western Caribbean Sea continues to 
generate heavy showers and thunderstorms across the NW basin. 
This active weather is expected to shift gradually westward with 
the tropical wave through tonight. Surface ridging building N of 
the region is supporting generally moderate trade winds across 
much of the basin, except for fresh winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea. The ridge will strengthen modestly behind the 
exiting tropical wave today through Fri night, gradually to 
bring a return of fresh to strong trade winds across the south 
central basin. A tropical wave will move across the Tropical 
Atlantic waters Thu night, across the eastern Caribbean Sea on 
Friday, and the central Caribbean Sea Fri night and Sat. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 31N51W, to 26N60W, to the 
Bahamas near 23N77W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from 
31N62W to 24N70W to 23N80W, and from 29N northward between 45W 
and 55W. A surface trough curves through the area that is from 
17N in the Caribbean Sea to 26N in the Atlantic Ocean between 
64W and 66W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong 
is from 17N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean 
between 59W and 70W. 

Gentle moderate SW winds are from 28N northward between 67W and 
79W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic 
Ocean from 20N northward from 60W eastward. Light to moderate 
anticyclonic winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 
feet, are from 55W westward. Gentle to locally fresh easterly 
trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, 
are between 22W and 55W. Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea 
heights that range from 7 feet to 11 feet, are from 18N 
northward from 22W eastward, with the strongest winds and the 
highest seas occurring off NW Mauritania and SE Western Sahara. 
Moderate wind speeds or slower, and sea heights that range from 
3 feet to 5 feet, are elsewhere. 

Surface ridging is building again across the region, and it is 
expected to prevail through Fri before lifting north on Sat. A 
stalled frontal boundary just NW of the area will drift SE to 
near the NE Florida waters today and linger across the region 
through Thu, which will maintain active weather N of 28N between 
Florida and 68W.

$$
mt