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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 211001

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high 
pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and Panama will continue 
to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the 
coast of Colombia through tonight. Sea heights will build to a 
range from 8-12 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend,
the pressure gradient will weaken some, although fresh to strong 
winds will continue in the south-central basin through the middle
of next week.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

High pressure building south through the western Gulf in the wake
of a cold front is leading to gales offshore Tampico, Mexico, 
early this morning. Seas in this area have increased to 9 to 12
ft. Gales will spread south through the western Bay of Campeche
and east to about 91W today, with seas reaching 12 to 16 ft,
locally near 18 ft offshore Veracruz. As the cold front moves well
SE of the area and the high settles in, conditions will gradually
improve tonight into the weekend. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at the website, for more details. 


The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa, extending 
about 120 nm offshore Liberia to near 06N13W. The ITCZ continues 
from 06N13W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. No 
convection is observed at this time. 


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a 
gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico. 

A weak low pressure that had formed near the Florida Big Bend last
evening has moved NE into Georgia. A cold front trails from this
low from just N of Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to
strong N to NE winds are behind the boundary, with seas of 8 to 12
ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along and within
120 nm behind the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, high pressure
centered in the far SE Gulf is leading to mainly gentle winds and
seas at or below 3 ft.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
along and behind this cold front, with strong N winds behind the 
front. This front will SE of the basin by late Sat. Gales over the
western Gulf, offshore Tampico, in the wake of the front, will 
spread south and east today to offshore Veracruz and adjacent 
portions of the SW Gulf, until conditions improve later tonight as
high pressure builds into the basin. The high will shift E Mon, 
allowing fresh to strong southerly flow to develop in the NW Gulf,
ahead of another cold front that will move off Texas Mon night. 
Moderate to fresh winds will following this front as it moves 
through the eastern Gulf Tue into Tue night. 


Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a  
gale warning for the Caribbean Sea. 

Dry air subsidence from aloft supports fair weather over most of 
the basin. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters is 
supporting fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean and fresh 
to strong winds in the south-central region where seas are in 
the 7 to 9 ft range. Sea heights are 5 to 6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to
support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the 
coast of Colombia through at least tonight. Seas will build with 
these winds. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trade winds 
will cover mainly the waters between 68W and 80W into the weekend.
Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A 
weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW Caribbean Sun


High pressure dominates much of the western and central Atlantic
waters. A surface trough extends along along 79W, just offshore
the south Florida coast, and is inducing scattered showers and
thunderstorms along it. Farther east, a stalled and dissipated
front is noted from 29N35W to 25N47W. Although no convection is
associated with this front, a surface trough along 50W is creating
scattered moderate convection clustered around 25N. In the eastern
Atlantic, low pressure just W of the Canary Islands of 1008 mb is
producing convection N of the area, with a benign surface trough
extending S along 25W to around 21N. 

Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring N of the dissipating
stationary front, otherwise mainly moderate E flow dominates the
basin. W of about 70W, winds are gentle and southerly. Decaying N
swell E of the Lesser Antilles is leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft.
Also, N of the dissipating stationary front, seas are 8 to 12 ft.
Elsewhere, seas are 5 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft W of 72W. 

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move off the NE 
Florida coast this morning, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. 
Showers and some strong thunderstorms will also accompany this 
front, which will move SE through the basin through the weekend. 
High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Tue as 
another cold front move across the waters NE of northern Florida 
Tue night. Fresh southerly winds will precede this front.