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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 230534

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0510 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea 
near 10N13W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to 
03N20W 03N25W, crossing the Equator along 29W, to 04S36W near 
the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong 
is from 04N to 07N between the coast of Africa and 25W, and from 
03N to 05N between 27W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. 


A stationary front passes through Florida just to the south of 
Lake Okeechobee, to 25N89W near the central Gulf of Mexico, 
beyond the middle Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: Isolated 
moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the 
stationary front. 

A stationary front, that extends across the basin from Fort 
Myers in Florida to southern Texas, will move northward as a 
warm front, from late tonight through Saturday. A cold front 
will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday afternoon, and move 
across the rest of the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday evening. 
Fresh to strong southerly wind flow will set up in the western 
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.  


An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in Guatemala. 
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Caribbean 
Sea, except for the southeastern corner of the area. An upper 
level trough moves from the Atlantic Ocean, across the central 
sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea, toward the eastern half 
of Venezuela. 

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows: broad 
anticyclonic wind flow covers the northwestern half of the 
Caribbean Sea. Broad cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted 
trough, covers the southeastern half of the Caribbean Sea.   

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through 
the eastern sections of Panama near 08N78W, beyond 08N84W, into 
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to 
scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong are 
in Colombia within 240 nm to the southeast of the monsoon 

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rain 
showers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and 
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-
low level wind flow.

Fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea will 
diminish slightly this weekend, as central Atlantic Ocean high 
pressure shifts eastward. A small area of fresh to strong winds 
will persist near the coast of Colombia for several days.


A dissipating stationary front is along 31N65W to 26N76W just to 
the east of the Bahamas. A stationary front is from 90 nm to 135 
nm to the northwest of the dissipating front. The stationary 
front is along 31N67W, to 28N75W, to just to the south of Lake 
Okeechobee in Florida. Precipitation: Broken to overcast 
multilayered clouds are to the north of the line that runs from 
32N50W, to 25N60W, and to 23N80W. Scattered moderate to widely 
scattered strong precipitation is within 180 nm to the southeast 
of the dissipating stationary front. It is possible that strong 
gusty winds and rough seas may be in some of the areas of the 
comparatively heavier and more intense precipitation.

A cold front passes just to the east of the Madeira Archipelago, 
to 30N20W, 25N30W, 26N40W, 30N50W. Precipitation: broken to 
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers, are 
within 120 nm on either side of the cold front.

A pair of weak stationary fronts in the SW N Atlantic Ocean will 
merge overnight from 31N67W to the central Bahamas to the 
Straits of Florida. A strong cold front will move to the east of 
northern Florida early on Sunday, and across the waters that are 
to the NE of the Bahamas through late Monday night, while 
weakening. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in 
advance of the front on Saturday and Saturday night, and then 
shift eastward in the northern waters through 
Sunday night. Scattered rainshowers and isolated strong 
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.