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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 132354

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC. 


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico by
early this afternoon. The front will shift across the Gulf waters,
moving E of the Gulf Saturday. Gale force winds are expected 
tonight through Fri morning behind the front over the northwest 
and west-central Gulf waters, with winds diminishing later Fri. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 02N24W to 
00N35W. Scattered moderate convection are along and within the 
ITCZ from 09N to 03N between the coast of Sierra Leone to 22W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted further 
south near the Equator from 01N to 05S between 08W-05W. Scattered
showers are observed near the coast of Brazil from 09N southward 
to 02S between 35W-49W.


A cold front extends southward into S Texas from a 1002 low 
pressure with a surface trough 30 to 60 nm east of the front. 
The trough is supporting a cold front that is moving southeastward
across Texas and towards the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. 
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and numerous moderate to 
locally strong thunderstorms are moving northeast extending from 
the northern Gulf of Mexico to 24N88W. Scattered showers are noted
further south into the Bay of Campeche near Tampico, Mexico from 
25N-20N between 92W-97W. 

Fresh to strong southerly flow will continue east of a cold front
that will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon into tonight.
The front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of 
Campeche tonight, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Channel
late Fri, and move through the Bahama Channel on Sat. Strong to 
near gale-force northwesterly flow west of the front will increase
to gale-force this evening over the northwest gulf waters, with 
30-40 kt conditions spreading south across the west-central gulf 
late tonight into Fri. The pressure gradient will relax on Fri 
night and Sat, with moderate west flow expected on Sat evening as 
the seas subside to less than 8 ft. The gradient will continue to 
relax with light northerly winds on Mon. 


A surface trough is in the NW Caribbean Sea, along 20N85W to 
16N85W in eastern Honduras. Scattered showers are possible in 
the vicinity of the trough and near the eastern coast of the 
Yucatan peninsula. Most of the Caribbean is relatively quiet with
no significant convection and only some light showers.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the S-central 
Caribbean through the upcoming weekend, with nocturnal pulses to 
near gale-force off the northwest coast of Colombia. These winds 
will expand north across the entire central Caribbean on Fri. A 
surface trough over the west Caribbean will gradually dissipate 
through Fri. A cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel on Fri 
afternoon, stall and then gradually dissipate over the NW 
Caribbean into early next week. Strong north winds are forecast 
west of the front across the Gulf of Honduras late Fri night and 
Sat. Large north swell will reach the Leewards on Sat, and spread 
south through the northeast Atlantic passages during the weekend. 


A cold front passes through 31N45W to 27N52W to 24N61W then
transitions to a stationary front at that point to 22N70W into 
the eastern Bahamas to 21N74W. Broken multilayered clouds and 
scattered moderate convection are 210 nm west of the front and 80
nm east of the line. 

One surface trough is along 45W from 23N to 17N. Scattered showers  
are possible in the vicinity of the trough. 

Further west, a second surface trough is along 57W from 22N to
13N. Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of the 

The frontal boundary north of the Windward Passage will drift 
north and extend east to west along 25N on Fri, and then gradually
wash out as it continues north across the northeast portion on 
Sat. Strong to near-gale southerly return flow will develop north 
of the Bahamas tonight and Fri, all ahead of another cold front 
that will sweep east across the northern waters during the 
upcoming weekend reaching a position from Bermuda to northwest 
Cuba on Sun night and from 31N71W to central Cuba on Mon. The 
front will stall as it passes across the waters north of Antilles 
on Tue. 

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