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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262335
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strengthening
high pressure northeast of the Azores combined with low pressure
across the Mediterranean Sea will induce gale force northerly 
winds near the coast of Morocco tonight through Tue night. Meteo-
France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the 
eastern portions of the marine zones Agadir, Tarfaya, and 
Canarias. Expect northerly gales from 28N to 31N, between 13W and
the coast of Morocco. Seas will build to the range of 15-20 ft 
on Tue between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France 
at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 
for details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure centered near the NW 
Bahamas will shift northeastward and strengthen modestly over 
the next few days. The pressure gradient between persistent low 
pressure in northwest Colombia and the associated ridge will 
create an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds across 
the south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each night, and
are expected to reach minimal gale-force Tue night within 90 nm 
of the coast of Colombia. Seas there will build to 10-11 ft 
during the period of gales. Winds are then expected to reach 
gale-force again Wed night and Thu night, with peak seas building
to 9-13 ft each night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of 
Africa near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 01N21W. 
The ITCZ begins farther south near 04S27W and extends west-
northwest to near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 38W-43W and within 60 nm north 
of the ITCZ between 30W-37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb is located near the NW Bahamas at a
position of 28N76W. A ridge extends west-southwestward from it 
to the central Gulf while broad low pressure is over the central 
U.S. and Mexico. The gradient between the high pressure and low 
pressure is supporting generally moderate southerly flow and 
seas of 3-4 ft west of 90W. Light to gentle southeast flow and 
lower seas of 1-3 ft are east of 90W. Numerous agricultural fires
across Mexico are producing hazy conditions per surface 
observations across some of the near and offshore waters within 
120 nm of the coast from Merida to Brownsville. 

For the forecast, high pressure ridging centered over the 
western Atlantic extends westward into the northern Gulf of 
Mexico. This ridge will slide eastward through Tue night, 
allowing a cold front to enter the NW Gulf. Ahead of the front, 
fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will develop over 
the western Gulf tonight and Tue, then expand into eastern 
portions Tue night into Wed. The cold front will sag into the 
northern Gulf late Wed, then stall Thu from the Florida Big Bend 
to near Tampico, Mexico, before lifting back north as a warm 
front Thu night into Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the offshore waters of Colombia for 
starting Tue night.

Latest ASCAT data passes indicate that moderate northeast winds 
are in the lee of Cuba. Winds become light to gentle and
northeast in direction across the remainder of the northwest 
Caribbean Sea. Seas are 2-4 ft. A pre-frontal trough extends 
from the central Atlantic near 22N58W southwestward to the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and continues to near 15N66W. Gentle
to moderate northeast to east winds are east of the trough, 
where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are 
west of the trough along with seas of 4-6 ft. Fresh to locally 
strong winds are near the Mona Passage. Fresh northeast to east
winds are over the central Caribbean and offshore northern 
Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 6-9 ft offshore Colombia
due to northeast to east swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will shift east-northeast across
the western Atlantic tonight into Thu night. It will produce 
fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin 
and through the Atlantic Passages. Strong trade winds offshore of
Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night, Tue night through 
Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a 
far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning

A weak cold front is analyzed from near 31N53W southwestward to 
23N61W to 20N70W and to the northern coast of the Dominican 
Republic, reaching to the northern Windward Passage. Broken to 
overcast low and mid-level clouds along with broken high clouds 
are noted within 180 nm southeast of the front. Fresh southerly 
winds are ahead of the front north of 27N and east to near 48W. 
Scattered showers are possible underneath these clouds north of 
25N, and isolated showers are possible south of 25N. A pre-
frontal trough extends from near 22N58W southwestward to the 
vicinity of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Isolated showers
are possible near this trough. The gradient related to high 
pressure west of the front is supporting moderate to fresh 
northeast winds south of 24N. Seas of 4-6 ft exist from 22N to 
27N between 50W-68W. 6 to 9 ft seas are north of 27N between 
57W-64W. Lower seas of 3-5 ft seas are elsewhere west of the 
front.

The eastern Atlantic is dominated by strong high pressure 
of 1036 mb analyzed well north of the area near 42N22W. A ridge 
extends from this high southwestward to 23N55W. Between 48W and 
the Lesser Antilles, winds are moderate in speeds along with
seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate trade winds and seas exceeding 7 to 9 
ft are generally east of 48W and south of 20N. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas continue north of 20N and between 
25W-45W. East of 25W, fresh to locally strong northeast winds and 
seas of 10 to 12 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned weak cold front
will stall from 26N55W to just N of Puerto Rico by Tue night.
Rough seas in westerly swell follow the front, with seas to 8 ft
reaching as far south as 26N, and will gradually subside into 
Tue. High pressure currently northeast of the Bahamas will shift 
northeast across the western Atlantic through Wed night. The next
cold front is forecast to move across the waters east of northern
Florida Thu, then stall from 30N55W to 28N70W to central Florida
Fri morning.

$$
Aguirre