000
AXNT20 KNHC 052324
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Dec 06 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 
06N10W to 04N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N35W to
01N42W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N 
to 14N east of 22W and from 06N to 10N between and 22W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal trough is analyzed from south-central Louisiana to 
26N96W and to just northeast of Tampico. Broken to overcast 
low and mid-level clouds are noted north of a line from near 
Tampa, Florida to 28N90W to 25N96W to inland Mexico just north 
of Tampico. Scattered showers are underneath these clouds.
Satellite imagery indicates lightning data from 26N to 27.5N
between 93W and 96W. Fresh south to southwest winds and moderate
seas are seen over the north-central Gulf ahead of trough. High 
pressure of 1025 mb is located over west-central Florida. A
ridge extends southwestward from it to the Yucatan Peninsula. The 
associated gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate winds. 
Seas are 3 to 4 ft over the basin. Higher seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
west 90W, except for 6 to 8 ft over the northwest Gulf, where 
fresh to strong northeast winds are behind the trough.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge extends from 1025 mb 
high pressure centered over central Florida to the far southwest 
Gulf. The ridge will move southward into tonight, allowing a cold
front to move into the northern Gulf. Behind the front, fresh to
locally strong NE winds are expected. The front will stall 
across the central Gulf by late Fri before dissipating Sat. Broad
high pressure will build north of the area behind the front into
Mon, thus supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the 
basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to
locally strong NE winds and rough seas from eastern Cuba to 
Honduras, and south of Jamaica into the SW Caribbean to about 
11N. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are also active off 
Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas dominate 
the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh winds and 
moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers, with 
embedded thunderstorms, are active off NE Honduras and northern 
Nicaragua. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted over the east 
and central portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic 
is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across the
northwest and central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.
The high pressure will weaken through tonight, allowing winds 
and seas to slightly diminish through Sat. Looking ahead, the 
high pressure will build again Sat night, supporting increased 
winds and seas across portions of the central and NW Caribbean, 
including the Windward Passage, into Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N48W to 26N54W to 24N62W,
where it transitions to a shearline to near the north-central 
coast of Hispaniola. Fresh north to northeast winds are behind 
the front along with seas of 8 to 10 ft in long-period northwest 
swell. Fresh northeast are just northwest of the shearline. High
pressure of 1023 mb is centered just east of the NW Bahamas to 
near 27N77W. High pressure covers the waters behind the front and
shearline. Fresh to strong southwest to west winds are offshore
northeastern Florida east to near 72W. These winds are 
associated with a broad trough that covers the eastern of the 
United States. A trough is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic 
along 26W from 20N to 27N. This trough is the surface reflection 
of a N to S upper-level low located over that general area. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are increasing from 21N to 
30N between 24W and 30W. Farther east, a ridge extending from 
1033 mb high pressure located north of Madeira in the eastern 
Atlantic dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters.
The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the 
aforementioned trough is producing an area of fresh to strong 
winds north of 25N east of 28W. Seas are in the range 9 to 13 
with these winds. Another area of fresh to strong northeast 
winds, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft are over the offshore waters 
from Guinea to Senegal. Moderate to fresh winds are noted farther
west over the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 6 to 9 ft in 
northeast swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stalling cold front that extends 
from near 25N47W to just northeast of Hispaniola will weaken 
tonight then dissipate Fri. An cold front will move off the 
coast of northeast Florida tonight, reach from Bermuda to Western
Cuba by late Fri, then from 28N55W to Hispaniola by late Sat, 
and finally stall and dissipate along 21N by Sun night. High 
pressure will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat 
through Mon following the front. 

$$
Aguirre