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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 140435

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Aug 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0420 UTC.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 23/24W from 
21N southward through the Cabo Verde Islands to 04N, moving W at 
10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is east of the wave axis near 
16N20W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm W and within 480
nm E of the wave axis from 05N-11N. Scattered showers are also
near the low pressure from 16N-19N between 18W-23W.

A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles has an axis that 
extends from 24N58W to Barbados to 06N60W in western Guyana, 
moving W at 15 kt. A surface trough accompanies this tropical
wave. Scattered showers are noted along and within 240 nm E of 
the wave axis from 20N-24N. Similar activity is near the wave axis
from 06N-13N. The tropical wave is forecast to pass through the 
Lesser Antilles this morning.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 68W from 17N
southward to Venezuela near 07N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated
moderate to strong convection is along the wave axis from 13N-14N.
Additional convection is over Venezuela along the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 82/83W from 
20N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is ahead of the wave axis, inland over portions
of Nicaragua and Honduras.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 
19N16W to 1010 mb low pressure near 16N20W to 11N30W to 10N41W.
The ITCZ is noted from 06N44W to 10N55W. Aside from the 
convection related to the tropical waves described above, 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 
75 nm either side of the ITCZ.


Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished over the far
western Gulf of Mexico in association with a trough of low
pressure. This surface trough extends from Freeport, TX to
Brownsville, TX. Moderate winds and seas 3-5 ft prevail in this
area. The trough will be moving fully inland into Texas later 
this morning. However, active weather may continue over the 
northwestern and west-central Gulf through Mon morning. Heavy 
rains are forecast across southern Texas through Monday. For more 
information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see 
products issued by your local National Weather Service office and 
the Weather Prediction Center.

Elsewhere, isolated tstorms are occurring over the far SW Gulf,
south of 22N and west of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted offshore of the Florida Big Bend, north of 28N and east
of 85.5W.

High pressure ridging extends across the remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico, anchored by a 1016 mb high pressure near 28N86W. Light to
gentle winds are near the high pressure center. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh 
west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 1-2 ft over the NE Gulf 
and 2-3 ft elsewhere. The surface ridge will strengthen across 
the central and east-central Gulf, causing moderate NE to E winds
west of the Yucatan Peninsula to pulse to fresh during the late 
afternoons and evenings through Tue. Meanwhile, a weak stationary 
front is expected to stall along the northern Gulf coast from New 
Orleans to northern Florida through this evening.


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper-level trough axis extending from the SE Bahamas to
Jamaica to Honduras is sustaining scattered showers and isolated 
tstorms over Haiti and Cuba. The east Pacific monsoon trough, 
situated over the SW Caribbean along 11N, is inducing scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection along it between 75W-77W, just
off the coast of Colombia. Moderate trades prevail across the 
eastern and central Caribbean, locally fresh in the south-central 
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas are 
estimated at 4-6 ft over the south-central Caribbean and 2-4 ft 

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the central 
Atlantic SW to the central Bahamas will gradually weaken through 
Tue. A broad trough associated with a tropical wave along 60W will
move westward across the Lesser Antilles this morning, reach 70W 
Mon morning, across the central Caribbean Mon through Tue, and 
across the western Caribbean Wed through Thu. This will yield 
mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the basin 
thought late Mon. High pressure will begin to build in across the 
region behind the tropical wave Tue through Wed and bring a return
to fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean.


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends from 31N79W to Jacksonville, FL. A
surface trough extends from 30.5N79W to 28.5N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 27N-29N between 77W-79.5W. 
Another surface trough extends from 31N70W to 27N76W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted along and within 75 nm SE of this 
surface trough. An upper-level trough axis extends from 31N77W to
the NW Bahamas. Another upper-level trough axis extends from 
Bermuda to 24N70W to east-central Cuba. The upper-level troughs
are enhancing the aforementioned convection. Farther east, a
surface trough from 24N58W to 27N54W is an extension of a tropical
wave mentioned above. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 24N-27N between 50W-58W. ASCAT satellite data suggests
that strong gusty winds are occurring within this convection.

A subtropical surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure
near 32N45W to 31N60W to 26N72W to South Florida. Gentle or weaker
wind speeds prevail near the ridge axis. Moderate winds are
occurring north of 28N and west of 69W where the surface troughs
are producing convection. West of 65W, seas are about 3 ft. Fresh
NE trades are noted from 17N-27N between 17W-35W. Seas are 5-7 ft
in this area. A 14/0000 UTC altimeter pass shows seas of 6-7 ft 
to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate or weaker winds
and 4-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere east of 65W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front extending from
31N79W to Jacksonville, FL will drift E-SE and weaken through 
Mon. Periods of active weather will continue well ahead of the 
front, N of 28N and W of 68W through tonight. A second frontal 
boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Wed and Thu to 
produce similar weather. High pressure over the central Atlantic 
extends to the central Bahamas and will weaken through Tue as a 
broad surface trough associated with a tropical wave moves across 
the southeast waters and into the SE Bahamas. High pressure will 
build into the Bahamas Wed through Thu to freshen trade winds S of