AXNT20 KNHC 110002
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 11 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the
Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through early Tue morning.
Then, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-
central Caribbean through Fri. Seas are expected to build to 11
ft with the strongest winds tonight into early Tue morning. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Sierra
Leon/Guinea border at 09N13W to 00N26W. The ITCZ continues from
00N26W to 01N38W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04S to 05N between 20W to 40W. Isolated
convection is from 01S to 02N between 40W to 46W. Numerous strong
convection is along the coast of Liberia approaching the adjacent
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure extends across the central Gulf of Mexico waters. An
area of isolated convection is noted south of Mississippi/Alabama
from 28N to 30N between 85W to 89W. Showers near coastal South
Texas is making its way to the adjacent waters. Otherwise,
quiescent conditions are observed across the rest of the basin.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the southwest Gulf with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas range 2-5 ft.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Gulf region and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will
support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the W
Gulf through Tue. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this
trough. A frontal boundary will linger across the northern Gulf
coast through Tue night. Building high pressure across the SE
CONUS will push the front across the Gulf on Wed, and it is
expected to exit the basin by Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas will follow the front.
A Gale Warning in currently in effect for near the coast of
Colombia for frequent gusts to gale force. See the Special
Features section for more information.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is impacting the
north central Caribbean, mostly from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola.
Isolated thunderstorms are also noted near Cuba and Jamaica.
Farther south, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is occurring in the SW Caribbean, S of 13N between 77W and 84W. A
partial ASCAT pass from this morning showed fresh to strong trade
winds over the south- central Caribbean. Similar winds are in the
Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds are occurring.
Seas are 8-11 ft over the south- central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the
Gulf of Honduras and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 1-3 ft in the lee
For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
winds, with frequent gusts to gale force near the coast of
Colombia tonight. Then, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail
over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong
winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue
night. A moisture surge will continue to affect the eastern
Caribbean through tonight.
A trough at the tail-end of a frontal boundary extends from
32N50W to 30N56W. Showers are noted along it. In the western
Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms are noted along and near the
Florida coast, N of 26N and W of 77W. Moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds are noted in this region. Thunderstorms are also
moving north of Hispaniola into the Atlantic waters, S of 22N
between 65W and 70W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are observed
over this area. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the
central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high near
32N43W with light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Seas generally
range 4-7 ft.
For the forecast, a ridge dominates the forecast waters. The next
cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic on Wed
and stall near 31N on Thu. A low will develop along the front on
Fri allowing the front to move across the northern forecast waters
through late Sat while weakening. High pressure will follow the