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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 190559

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC. 

...Special Features...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale warning...

On 20/1800 UTC a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will extend 
from 30N85W to 21N88W. Gale force NW winds will be W of front N of
25N W with seas 10 to 13 FT. 

...Atlantic Gale warning... 

On 21/0000 UTC Gale force S winds will be in advance of a cold 
front N of 28N between 75W and 79W with seas to 12 ft.


The monsoon trough passes from N Liberia near 07N11W to 04N18W. 
The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N30W to N Brazil near 00N50W.
Isolated moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon trough from
00N-05N between 00W-16W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
along the ITCZ from 02S-05N between 27W-50W. 


A surface trough is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 30N94W to
27N97W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the trough. A 1021
mb high is centered over Alabama near 33N86W. 5-15 kt E to SE
surface winds are over the Gulf, E of the trough, with strongest 
winds over the NW Gulf. 

An upper level low over central Texas is progressing eastward 
supporting diffluence across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. 

A Strong and convective cold front will race across the Gulf 
waters from late Wed through early Fri. Gale force winds will 
develop W of the front on Thu with seas building to near 20 ft. A 
post-frontal surface high pressure will set up over the central 
gulf waters on Sat, and move to over the NE waters on Sun. 


A 1014 mb surface low is centered over the west Caribbean near 
17N85W. A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula near
20N89W to the low center to 16N82W. Scattered showers are over the
NW Caribbean from 16N-21N between 82W-89W. Scatterometer data 
depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the Caribbean. 
Fresh to strong winds are noted south of 15N between 72W-78W.  

Fresh to strong winds will continue across the south-central 
Caribbean through Sun, increasing to near gale force along the 
coast of Colombia each night. A frontal trough will drift NW and 
gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean through early Wed. 
Strong southerly flow will develop across the W Caribbean on Wed 
night ahead of a cold front entering the Yucatan Channel on Thu. 
The front will reach from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua during
the upcoming weekend. 


The tail-end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N66W to
29N70W to 31N77W. A dissipating cold front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N53W to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm E of front N of 25N. Scattered showers
are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. A 1024 mb high is over
the E Atlantic near 27N36W. 

Remnants of the dissipating cold front from 24N65W will drift NW 
on Wed and Thu. Strong southerly flow will develop N of the 
Bahamas early Thu, increasing to minimal gale force late Thu ahead
and behind of a strong cold front on Thu night and Fri. The front
will reach from 29N65W to Hispaniola on Sat night, with 
associated winds diminishing to 20 kt or less. Large seas will 
subside from the W on Sun and into early next week. 

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