AXNT20 KNHC 242355
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...
A Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture
across Central America, which will produce heavy rainfall across
portions of Central America over the next several days. This
activity could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local
meteorological service for more details.
An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 10N
southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers associated
with the wave are noted south of 06N between 40W-41W.
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 02N43W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 02N43W to the coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the precipitation activity
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N-01S between 22W-37W. Farther east,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is moving along
south of the monsoon trough off the Ivory Coast, north of 03N and
east of 18W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging continues to extend across the basin from a 1022
mb high pressure located in central Alabama. Fair weather prevails
under this ridge of high pressure. A trough is noted along the
Florida coast from 29N83W to 27N82W. Another trough is seen in the
Bay of Campeche from 20N91W to the coast of Mexico near 18N93W.
Easterly winds are gentle to moderate in the eastern Gulf, with
moderate southeasterly winds in the northwestern Gulf. Smoke
continues over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly
west of 93W with some observations near the coast of Mexico
reporting hazy skies.
High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will persist through
early next week, maintaining moderate to fresh SE flow over the
northwest Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur at night
in the SW Gulf as well associated with a surface trough moving off
the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will
maintain hazy skies generally within 90 nm of the eastern coast of
Mexico the next few days.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along the
south central American coast from southern Honduras to northern
Colombia. The monsoon trough is noted moving along the Panama
coast to Colombia which is aiding the convective activity. See the
section above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat
over Central America.
Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the
Greater Antilles with light showers approaching the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin,
with moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of
High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin through early next week. Broad low
pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific
waters will continue to result in scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through at
least early next week as a developing low off the coast of
Nicaragua tracks northwestward. Otherwise, a tropical wave will
move across the Lesser Antilles by Mon evening and across the
eastern Caribbean Tuesday through Wednesday.
Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave,
currently moving across the central Atlantic.
The 1022 mb high pressure in central Alabama is ridging across
the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front continues to push
across the central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N43W and
extends to the southwest near 26N55W. From that point, the tail-
end of the boundary stalls to 26N64W. Showers are seen moving
along the front, with some embedded thunderstorms along the tail-
end of the boundary. A surface trough is analyzed from the western
Atlantic to the Windward Passage and the northern Caribbean, near
26N66W to 17N76W. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are
seen near this trough particularly from 26N-24N and near the
southern Bahamas. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin.
The stationary front will dissipate through early Saturday. High
pressure ridging along 30N and west of 70W will gradually shift
southward to near 28N by early next week in response to a cold
front that will drop south of 30N Saturday. The front will slowly
move south and become stationary near 25N by late on Sunday
before it dissipates. High pressure ridging will then build along
29N early next week.
For additional information please