AXNT20 KNHC 231725
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N11W to 04N13W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from
03N16W to 02N26W, crossing the Equator along 28W, to 02S38W,
crossing the Equator again along 40W, to 02N50W near the coast
of Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers have been in
the coastal areas of Brazil, French Guyana, and Suriname from
02N to 05N between 50W and 55W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward from 60W
GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is centered in Florida.
One 1022 mb high pressure center is in the Florida Panhandle. A
second 1022 mb high pressure center is in N central Florida near
29N82W. Broken high clouds are to the NW of the line that runs
from 21N97W to 23N90W to 30N87W. Fair weather covers the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure will prevail across the area through Wednesday.
The high pressure eventually will retreat eastward, ahead of a
cold front that will be moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico
on Thursday. The front will reach the far eastern Gulf of Mexico
by Friday evening, where it will become stationary and weaken to
a trough on Saturday. Scattered rainshowers with thunder are
expected with this frontal system.
An upper level trough passes through the westernmost parts of
the Atlantic Ocean, across the central Bahamas, across the SE
part of Cuba, to the coast of Honduras. Upper level SW wind flow
covers the Caribbean Sea to the south and southeast of the upper
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the south
central and eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then
diminish slowly thereafter as high pressure north of the area
weakens. It is possible that a cold front may move into the
northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the
week into next weekend.
A cold front is just to the west of Bermuda, passing through
32N67W to 31N68W. The front is stationary from 31N68W to 25N72W.
A surface trough continues from 25N72W to Great Inagua in the SE
Bahamas, to 18N73W in SW Haiti. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 90 nm to 150 nm on either
side of the line that passes through 32N66W to 28N68W to 22N72W
to 21N74W, to Great Inagua.
A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 27N54W. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is present in water vapor imagery
near 27N49W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from
20N northward between 33W and 63W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N to 31N between 42W and
50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N to 32N
between 38W and 50W.
The current stationary front and trough will dissipate gradually
through today. A new cold front will move off the southeastern
United States coast on Saturday. Scattered rainshowers with
thunder, some with gusty winds, everything associated with this
system, are expected to affect much of the area north of 27N
from Friday through late Saturday.
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