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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201202
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

There are three tropical waves between the west coast of Africa 
and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 26W from 3N-11N, moving W 15-20 knots. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the
ITCZ.

A second tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 3N-11N, moving W 
about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is also noted where
the wave meets the ITCZ.

A third tropical wave is along 55W from 5N-14N, moving W about 10
knots. A cluster of moderate convection is within about 90 nm on
the west side of the wave's axis from 10N-12N

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis
is along 67W/68W, and extends from the Mona Passage to the coast
of Venezuela. A cluster of moderate convection is over the Mona
Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 
03N40W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is roughly from
3N-7N between 17W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1006 mb low pressure center is inland in the Deep South of 
Texas near 27N98W. A large area of moderate to strong convection 
is associated with the low affecting the Gulf waters from 25N-29N
W of 95W. Flash flooding threats exist along the Texas coast as
this system move slowly. A widespread 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is
possible over this region through Thu morning with isolated
pockets of heavier amounts expected. A ridge dominates the Gulf
region. 

Fresh SE winds are expected in the NW Gulf through this evening. 
A typical pattern, with a ridge, and a surface trough developing 
over the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, then moving westward 
across the SW Gulf during overnight hours, accompanied by fresh 
east to southeast winds, is expected to persist through the 
weekend. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave along 55W will reach the Windward Islands Thursday
morning. Winds will pulse to around 20 kt in the Gulf of Honduras
each night through Sunday. Trade winds across the south-central 
Caribbean will strengthen on Thursday, then expand in coverage 
across the basin this weekend. 

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted from the Mona
Passage, including the eastern portion of Dominican Republic, 
eastward to the Leeward Islands. This convective activity is
associated with a tropical wave located along the Mona Passage 
and the presence of an upper-level trough that crosses eastern 
Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are also noted over the SW 
Caribbean just off the coast of Colombia. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation 
centered near 28N64W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms
are on the SE side of the cyclonic circulation affecting the 
waters from 24N-28N between 60W-68W. Similar convective activity 
is also noted from 21N-23N between 62W-66W. 

A weakening stationary front located east-northeast of the 
Bahamas will gradually dissipate later today. High pressure from 
the central Atlantic will build westward over the region through 
Thu. A weak trough is expected to move into the northwest waters 
Fri through Sat night, with little effect.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR