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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 041732

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Dec 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.


The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The 
ITCZ extends from 07N11W to 05N35W. A surface trough is analyzed 
S of 09N, along 42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
10N-17N between 28W-37W.


As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida peninsula 
near 28N82W southwestward to 26N88W.  From there, the front 
transitions to stationary to SE Mexico near 18N94W. Scattered 
showers are occurring within 60 NM of this front. A reinforcing 
cold front has just emerged from the Texas-Louisiana coast and 
extends from 29N91W to 27N98W. Only within the SW Gulf of Mexico 
are there any N fresh winds behind the front.  Elsewhere winds 
are moderate or weaker across the Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft in the 
SW Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the primary front will move slowly SE across 
the Gulf and into the Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean by 
early Wed, accompanied by fresh winds within 120 nm north of the 
front. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far 
SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico through this evening as the front 
moves away from the area, then will return Wed through Thu as 
the next front approaches.


The pressure gradient between ridging to the north of the 
Caribbean and an 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to 
strong with locally near-gale E trades this morning over the 
central Caribbean. Seas are 8-11 ft over the S central Caribbean 
and 3-7 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is 
occurring today.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will extend W-SW to the SE 
Bahamas through early Wed, maintaining fresh to strong trade 
winds and rough seas across the south-central and portions of 
the SW Caribbean. South of the ridge, fresh trades and large NE 
swell are expected to continue across the Tropical N Atlantic 
waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. Fresh to 
strong winds will resume in the SW basin Thu evening and prevail 
through the weekend as high pressure builds E of the Bahamas, in 
the wake of a new cold front moving across the western Atlantic. 
This cold front is expected to move into the northwestern 
Caribbean early Wed and reach from NW Hispaniola to the Gulf of 
Honduras by Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to 
develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening through Fri night 
with the front. 


A stationary front extends from the 1015 mb low just north of 
our waters at 34N27W to 27N30W. From that point, it transitions 
to a cold front extending to 17N47W. At that location, the cold 
front transitions to a shear line extending to 16N57W. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring north of 23N east of 30W. N to 
NE winds behind the front north of 25N east of 40W are fresh to 
strong. Seas within 240 NM northwest of the front/shear line are 
8-10 ft. A second cold front has emerged off of the NE Florida 
coast and extends from 31N80W to 30N81W. Finally, a pronounced 
surface trough analyzed S of 09N along 42W is forcing fresh to 
strong E winds within 300 NM to the east. Seas are 8-10 ft.
Elsewhere, the 1026 mb Bermuda-Azores High is centered near 
30N47W with ridging extending west-southwestward toward the 
Florida peninsula. The pressure gradient from the high/ridge to 
the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh trades south of 20N. The 
remainder of the basin has winds moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-
7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will shift SE and weaken 
through tonight ahead of the next cold front that is expected to 
emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida this afternoon. 
Fresh E winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail S of 25N and E 
of 65W today and will gradually subside through tonight. The 
cold front will reach from near 31N76W to Ft  Lauderdale, FL 
tonight, then weaken considerably as it reaches from near 31N58W 
to the northwestern Bahamas Tue evening. Another cold front is 
expected to move across the NW waters Tue night and move away of 
the region Thu night. This second front will be followed by 
strong to near gale-force NW winds north of 27N, with gale-force 
winds possible north of 29N Wed night through Thu.