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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 161035

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.


The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent.
The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 04S28W and to 01S41W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident south of 05N and between 12W and


A few showers are observed near the coast of the northwest Gulf 
of Mexico, while tranquil weather conditions are prevalent 
elsewhere. A subtropical ridge persists over the NE Gulf and the 
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico
and Texas result in fresh to locally strong E-SE winds west of 
87W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail in the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf will result in 
fresh to strong winds pulsing off the northwest Yucatan peninsula 
during the next several nights. Similar winds are also forecast in
the western Gulf today. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas will 
prevail through most of the week. 


A surface trough over Hispaniola continues to produce a few
showers over the nearshore waters in the south side of the 
island. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north 
of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures in NW Colombia support fresh
to strong NE winds in the south-central Caribbean, along with 
seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and
seas of 3-6 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean, Windward 
Passage and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the islands will result in
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds pulsing nightly in 
the south-central Caribbean Sea through Wed night. Fresh to 
occasionally strong winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage,
S of the Dominican Republic, and in the lee of Cuba for the next 
few days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate 
seas can be expected across much of the basin through the middle 
of the week.


A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N61W to eastern
Cuba. A couple of surface troughs are evident ahead of the frontal
boundary. Abundant moisture and divergence aloft result in
scattered moderate convection south of 29N and between 55W and the
frontal boundary. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 
seas of 7-10 ft are occurring in the area described. The remainder
of the basin is under broad ridging, supporting mainly fresh 
easterly trade winds and 7-9 ft seas south of 20N and west of 35W.

A broad low pressure persists south of the Azores, sustaining
moderate to fresh westerly winds and 6-8 ft seas north of 28N and
between 23W and 37W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are present.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front is forecast 
to weaken today into a broad surface trough. The disturbance will 
continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
affecting the eastern Bahamas, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico into 
midweek, before lifting northeastward. The decaying northerly 
swell across the waters impacting Puerto Rico southward to the 
Leeward islands will linger through the middle of the week. 
Building high pressure over the waters N of 20N will result in 
more tranquil marine conditions later this week.