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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 011800 RRA

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1755 UTC.

A low pressure system of 1007 mb (AL91) is located near 28N86W, 
or 130 nm SW of Apalachicola, Florida. Recent satellite wind data,
along with buoy and ship observations indicate the area of low 
pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has a broad but 
well-defined circulation with maximum sustained winds of about 35 
mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low is 
also showing signs of organization. Wave heights are 5-9 ft north
of 27N and west of 90W, with the highest seas occurring in the NE
quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions remain marginally 
favorable for additional development, and if these trends 
continue, a short- lived tropical depression or storm is likely to
form as soon as this afternoon. The system is likely to meander 
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight but begin a 
slow southward motion on Friday. By this weekend, environmental 
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional 
development as the system continues moving southward, likely 
remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
later this afternoon. The chance of formation into a tropical 
cyclone during the next 48 hours is high.

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center website,, for more details.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of
13N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No deep convection is noted
near the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W, south of 
15N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 02N to 11N and between 44W and 52W.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean Sea. It has its
axis along 61W, south of 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. A few
showers are present near the wave axis.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 04N31W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N31W to 06N46W and then from 07N49W to
10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
south of 11N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 01N to 08N and between 30W and 44W and also from 06N
to 13N and between 53W and 59W.


Please read the Special Features section for details on AL91 in 
the NE Gulf of Mexico.

Aside from AL91, the rest of the Gulf of Mexico is under a dry 
airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and 
thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds and mainly slight seas 

For the forecast, elsewhere from AL91, over the western Gulf, 
high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the 
weekend and into early next week, with occasional fresh pulses 
along the W coast of Yucatan.


A complex weather pattern over the western Caribbean due to the
disturbance in the Gulf, surface trough in the Bahamas and
divergence aloft results in scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from Central America to eastern Cuba and western
Hispaniola, especially between 70W and 85W. The remainder of the
basin is devoid of deep convection. The weak pressure regime that
dominates the basin allows for moderate easterly winds in the
central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. In
the rest of the Caribbean, light to locally moderate SE-S winds
and 2-4 ft seas prevail. Stronger winds are likely near the deep
convection in the area. The upper level pattern is forecast to
change little over the next few days, thus heavy rainfall is
possible across the eastern Cuba, Jamaica, western Hispaniola and
SE Bahamas. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic 
through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N 
coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become southerly moderate 
over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night, then 
generally light Mon and Mon night ahead of a trough that is 
expected to move into the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate W 
to NW winds are expected behind the trough. 


A surface trough extends from a low pressure system off Cape
Hatteras, entering the western Atlantic near 31N72W and continuing
southwestward to SE Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is seen ahead of the surface trough, mainly west
of 63W. Moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds are occurring
west of 63W. Stronger winds are likely near the deep convection.
Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. 

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N34W to 27N43W, then
becomes a stationary front to 31N62W. Another cold front is draped
across the Canary Islands in the eastern Atlantic. Neither
boundary is producing deep convection. The rest of the basin is
dominated by a broad, weak subtropical ridge positioned near
22N41W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to occasionally fresh
easterly winds south of 19N and between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. Seas in the region described are 4-6 ft. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface trough extending from near Miami, FL 
northeastward to 31N72W will be the focal point for scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days, 
along and east of the trough. A broad area of low pressure is 
expected to form along this trough tonight to the southwest of 
Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend from 30N69W to 
South Florida. Fresh to strong winds are likely near and to the SE
of the low as it shifts E along a frontal boundary to the S of 
Bermuda on Fri. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building
seas are expected N of 27N and W of 74W Sun through Mon in the 
wake of a cold front. This cold front should reach from near 
31N63W to the central Bahamas by late Mon night.