000
AXNT20 KNHC 081011
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jul 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 33W from 
02-16N. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the wave
axis. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 50W from 
03-18N. No significant convection or shower activity is noted 
with this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 68W from the
British Virgin Islands southward to central Venezuela. No 
significant convection is noted with this wave.

A NW Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 89W from the  
Yucatan Peninsula southward across central America and into the 
Eastern Pacific near 03N89W. Scattered moderate convection is  
occurring over the portions of the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan 
Channel.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Mauritania near 20N16W, then curves southwestward to 07N32W. The 
ITCZ is analyzed from 06N34W to 08N48W, where it is broken by a 
tropical wave. Another segment of the ITCZ is analyzed from 08N51W
to 09N59W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along
the segments of the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An elongated upper-level low across the central Gulf is triggering
strong convection over the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh E 
winds across the Gulf S of 24N, with seas of 2-5 ft also occurring
in this region. Across the Gulf N of 24N, gentle to moderate 
winds and slight seas prevail. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the 
basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds 
will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each 
afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and then 
drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent surface winds beneath an upper-level low are leading 
to the development of scattered moderate convection over the 
Windward Passage and the adjacent northern Caribbean waters, as 
well as the coasts of Haiti and Cuba. A 1027 mb Bermuda High 
continues to support a trade-wind pattern for much of the 
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are possible over the central 
Caribbean. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds with rough seas are 
evident in the south-central basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are 
occurring in the northern Caribbean Passages. Moderate to fresh 
trades and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern, SW, and NW 
Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge
and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to 
strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean 
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong E winds are expected 
in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the end of the 
week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in 
the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight 
to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two surface troughs are producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms east of the Bahamas from 20N to 30N and between 68W
and 77W. Otherwise, much of the Atlantic is under the influence 
of a ridge stemming from a 1029 mb high centered near 35N35W, and
another 1027 mb high near 34N58W. This results in moderate to 
fresh trades and moderate seas across the majority of the Atlantic
N of 10N and E of 75W. Winds are fresh to strong in between the 
Canary Islands, along the north shore of Hispaniola, and also 
through the northern Caribbean Passages. Gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas are occurring W of 75W and south of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas through the week. 
This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds, except for 
fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola
through Fri night.

$$
ERA