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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 181014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Recent satellite derived wind data provide
observations of gale force winds on either side of a cold front
that extends from 31N63W to eastern Cuba near 20N74W. Seas are in
the 12 to 17 ft range within the area of gale force winds W of 
the front, affecting the waters N of 28N between 66W and 76W. Gale
force winds and seas of up to 12 ft are noted N of 30 E of the 
front to 60W. The Gale Warning will be allowed to expire by this 
morning with fresh to strong winds persisting on both sides of the
front today. Seas will gradually subside from W to E through mid-
week.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure
building across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low will support
pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the south-central
Caribbean, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia
at night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. These 
marine conditions are expected tonight, Wed night, and possibly 
Thu night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 04N30W to 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to
04N between 15W and 18W, from 05N to 08N between 28W and 31W, and
near the equator W of 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb located over SE Louisiana dominates the 
entire Gulf. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally
fresh NW winds across the eastern Gulf E of 87W. Mainly light to 
gentle anticyclonic flow dominates the remainder of the Gulf with
moderate southerly winds over the NW Gulf. Seas are 5-7 ft over 
the eastern Gulf E of 87W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Some cloud air 
stratocumulus clouds are observed mainly over the Gulf waters S 
of 25N.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through 
Wed. Fresh southerly return flow will set up across the western 
Gulf today ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from 
the coast of Texas by Wed night. The front will reach from near 
Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from 
northern Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu night. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake 
of the front, with gale conditions possible over the west-central 
and SW Gulf Thu through Fri. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean, near
the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section 
above for more information.

The cold front previously located from eastern Cuba to the coast
of Nicaragua has weakened and now a shear line is analyzed in the
same area. Fresh northerly winds are noted per scatterometer data
W of the shear line with seas of 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate 
northerly winds are seen on the E side. Mainly moderate trades 
dominate the remainder of the Caribbean Sea E of the shear line, 
with the exception of fresh NE to E winds near the coast of 
Colombia. Seas are 3-5 ft, except 5-7 ft near the coast of 
Colombia. Patches of low level clouds with possible light rain are
behind the shear line, more concentrated over eastern Cuba, 
Honduras, and the Gulf of Honduras. 

For the forecast, an increase in the aerial extent and strength of  
trade wind flow is expected beginning tonight. Please see the 
Special Features section for more information.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning remains in effect in association with a cold front
that extends from 31N63W to eastern Cuba near 20N74W. Please read
the Special Features section above for more details. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front. 

Outside the Gale Warning area, a dissipating cold front enters the
Atlantic forecast waters near 31N32W and continues SW to near
25N50W. A band of low level clouds is associated with the front.
Farther E, a 1009 mb low pressure is located near 32N25W with a
surface trough extending from the low center to 24N28W. Fresh to
locally strong S winds and seas of 8-8 ft are between the trough 
and the Madeira and the Canary Islands. 

Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the tropical 
Atlantic, including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. An area 
of fresh to locally strong winds is noted from 10N-15N between 
50W-55W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will 
move across the SE waters and N of Hispaniola today, then begin 
to lift N by tonight into Wed while dissipating. High pressure 
will follow the front. This system will move eastward through Thu
ahead of the next cold front is forecast to move offshore northern
Florida by early Fri.

$$
GR