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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 041017

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Dec 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.


Gulf of Mexico Dense Fog: The National Weather Service in Miami,
Tampa, and Tallahassee Florida have issued a Dense Fog Advisory 
for the coastal waters within 20 nm of shore. Dense fog is 
expected to reduce visibilities to 1/4 nm or less, which is 
already occurring in inland locations. Low visibility will make 
navigation difficult. The Dense Fog Advisory will remain in effect
through 9 AM EST Monday. For more information, please visit


The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 05N16W to 07N34W. A surface trough is analyzed S of 
14N, along 37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N 
to 11N and between 23W and 40W.


Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense
Fog Advisory issued for the E Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters. 

A cold front extends from 30N84W to 24N92W, then becomes
stationary to 18N94W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are 
occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico, along with seas of 4-7 ft. 
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent in the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the front will continue moving across the basin
then into the W Caribbean through mid-week accompanied by fresh 
winds. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW 
Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico through this evening as the front moves
away from the area. Fresh to strong winds will return by Wed/Thu 
as the next front approaches. 


A 1024 mb high pressure system over the central Atlantic extends 
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force 
easterly trade winds continue affecting the waters of the south- 
central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh to 
strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are noted in the 
north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are occurring in the eastern Caribbean 
and Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker trades and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent. 

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will extend to the northern
Caribbean through late Tue, maintaining fresh to strong trade
winds and rough seas across the south-central and portions of
the SW Caribbean through Wed as a frontal boundary prevails N of 
the region. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the SW basin Thu 
evening and prevail through the weekend as high pressure builds E 
of the Bahamas in the wake of the front. Fresh trades and large NE
swell are expected to continue across the Tropical N Atlantic 
waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. A cold 
front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean early 
Wed and continue moving E through the end of the week. Fresh to 
strong NE winds are forecast to develop in the Windward Passage 
Thu night through Fri night.  


A cold front extends from the triple point of an occluded low,
entering the basin near 31N26W to 17N54W. The 1015 mb occluded 
low is centered near 29N36W. Scattered showers are noted along and
E of the front between 23W-31W. A recent scatterometer satellite 
pass captured fresh to strong northerly winds to the west of the 
low pressure, mainly north of 25N and between 37W and 42W. Seas in
these waters are 8-12 ft. Farther west, a surface trough is 
analyzed along 69W, from 20N to 26N. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds
and seas of 8-10 ft are found from 16N to 26N and between the 
cold front and the surface trough. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the SW North Atlantic.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad
ridging positioned over the central Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft,
primarily south of 17N. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh E winds and rough seas in N 
swell S of 25N and E of 65W will gradually subside through 
tonight. Strong high pressure centered E of Bermuda will shift SE 
and weaken today ahead of the next cold front that is expected to 
emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida this afternoon. The 
front will reach from near 31N76W to Ft. Lauderdale, FL tonight, 
and weaken considerably as it reaches from near 31N58W to the 
northwestern Bahamas Tue evening. Another cold front is expected 
to move across the NW waters Tue night and move away of the region
Thu night. This second front will be followed by strong to near- 
gale force NW winds north of 27N, with gale force winds possible 
north of 29N and quickly building seas Wed night and Thu.