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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



326 
AXNT20 KNHC 091010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Storm Warning: A non-tropical low pressure area 
with a central pressure of 972 mb is located about 1000 nautical 
miles east of Bermuda near 32N42.5W. An area of scattered 
moderate convection is observed north of 18N, between 20W and 
45W. Storm force winds remain in the NW quadrant of the low, 
embedded in a very large area of gale force winds within 300 nm 
west of the low and 500 nm east of the low. Very rough to high 
seas cover an extensive area north of 16N, between 27W and 70W. 
Conditions will gradually improve today in the subtropical 
Atlantic as the low moves quickly NE. However, seas will remain 
very rough north of 25N through the weekend. Large long-period 
N to NE swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean 
Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean 
producing high seas into the start of next week, with large E 
swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri 
through Sat.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A new low will develop 
along 65W and N of 31N by late Sat and move SSE entering the 
central Atlantic this weekend. Gale-force winds will develop near
the low along 28N. These conditions will dissipate by early next 
week as the low moves quickly E while weakening. 

More information about these systems, including the associated 
Storm and Gale Warnings, can be found in the High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W 
to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 03N46W. Scattered 
showers are noted within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ between
31W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb surface high is centered near 29N86W supporting 
generally fair weather conditions and mainly gentle to moderate 
easterly winds over the basin. Seas remain 1 to 4 ft over the 
majority of the basin, with 3 to 5 ft seas S of 25N including the
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure will meander through the upcoming
weekend. The ridge will shift eastward early next week as a cold 
front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail through the weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh early
next week. Winds may increase to strong speeds and seas build up 
to 8 ft late Tue in the NW Gulf as the aforementioned front 
approaches from the NW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the 
western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating 
moderate to fresh NE winds west of 70W in Caribbean, including 
the Windward Passage, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. In 
the E Caribbean, gentle to moderate N winds prevail with mainly 
4-6 ft seas. Seas are 8 to 12 ft near and SW of Atlantic passages 
due to long period NE swell originating from the storm force low 
in the central Atlantic.

For the forecast, the intense low pressure system in the central
Atlantic is gradually lifting northeastward away from the area
through the weekend. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic
will move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic
waters through late Sat. The current weather pattern will
sustain NE-E winds across much of the forecast waters. Fresh to
strong pulsing NE-E winds will occur in offshore Colombia into
early next week. Moderate to fresh NE winds, occasionally
pulsing to strong speeds, will affect the Caribbean Passages and
the lees of the Greater Antilles through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a 
Storm and Gale Warnings active in the basin.

Elsewhere, a weak high pressure ridge off NE Florida is 
supporting gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in the far western 
Atlantic. In the far eastern Atlantic, weak high pressure 
prevails offshore W Africa, causing gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow.

For the forecast W of 55W, the intense low pressure system over 
the subtropical Atlantic is forecast to accelerate today into the
north Atlantic and strengthen into a powerful non-tropical 
cyclone. Large long-period N to NE swell will impact the Atlantic
waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas 
and the E Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of next 
week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of
26N through Sat. A new low will develop along 65W and N of 31N by
late Sat and move SSE entering the central Atlantic this weekend.
Gale-force winds will develop near the low along 28N. These 
conditions will dissipate by early next week as the low moves 
quickly E while weakening. 

$$
ERA