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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 172318

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
718 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will allow winds to pulse to
gale force each night this week off the coast of Colombia and NW 
Venezuela starting tonight at 15/0000 UTC. Seas are expected to be
10 to 13 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC or at website 
for further details.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W S of 13N, moving W
at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate showers are ahead of the wave from
05N-08N between 36W-39W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49/50W S of 13N, moving 
W around 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near this wave from 
06N-10N between 47W-50W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 04N-16N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are tstorms are seen from 06N-15N
between 57W-69W, including the SE Caribbean, Windward Islands and
ABC Islands.

The tropical wave that was previously along 74W has been removed
from the analysis.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 07N47W to the
coast of South America near 08N59W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers 
are seen along the ITCZ between 42W-46W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 09N-12N between 53W-56W.


A digging mid-level trough is extending into the northwest and
central Gulf of Mexico. This trough, along with upper-level 
diffluence in the area, is leading to a squall line that is 
oriented from 24.5N94W to 28.5N91W as of 2100 UTC. The squall line
has been moving slowly eastward but is building southwestward, 
with thunderstorms as far southwest as 23.5N94.5W as of 2200 UTC. 
Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is 
within 30 nm either side of the squall line. The line extends
northeastward to SE Louisiana and southern Mississippi in the form
of scattered to broken thunderstorms. Elsewhere, scattered 
tstorms are seen off the SW coast of Florida, east of 83.5W, with
scattered to numerous tstorms over the Florida Peninsula. 
Additional scattered tstorms are north of western Cuba, from 22N- 
24N between 80W-85W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is
relatively quiet. Look for enhanced moisture along with scattered
thunderstorms to continue over portions of the eastern Gulf
through Wednesday. Otherwise, high pressure will remain across the
Gulf through Saturday.


See the special features section in regards to the developing gale
north of Colombia. Near-gales are expected over a large area in
the south-central Caribbean, with strong trades over the entire
central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras at night. 

Currently, a tropical wave is moving through the eastern 
Caribbean. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. The 
western Caribbean is dominated by ridging, with no significant 
shower activity seen for most of the central and western 
Caribbean. The exception is over Cuba, where daytime heating is 
causing afternoon and early evening showers and tstorms. The 
ASCAT pass from Monday morning showed strong trades covering the 
central Caribbean from 70W-79W, with near gales from 11.5N-13.5N 
between 73W-78W. Fresh trades are elsewhere.


A mid to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico coupled with
upper-level diffluence over Florida and the NW Bahamas is leading
to more rounds of scattered moderate convection from the Straits 
of Florida to the western Atlantic, including the northwest
Bahamas. This convection can be seen west of 75W, from 22N-31N.
Surface high pressure ridging covers the remainder of the area
west of 40W. A cold front extends from the Madeira Islands to
29N20W to 24N32W to 27N39W. No significant showers are seen with 
the front.

A surface trough will move slowly eastward off NE Florida Tue and
Wed, accompanied by enhanced showers and tstorms. Elsewhere, a 
ridge will dominate the region through Sat.

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