386
AXNT20 KNHC 172311
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 18 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to the Equator
along 40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N
between 16W-48W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from a Louisiana 1007 mb low pressure center to
the Texas-Mexico border. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is from
a 1000 mb low pressure center,at 21N95W to NE Honduras.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the western Gulf north
of 26N and west of 91W. Winds are SE fresh to strong in the SE Gulf
of Mexico with seas 6-7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker
with seas 4-6 ft. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires
are covering most of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico
including in the coastal plains of Mexico.
For the forecast, the front will shift eastward across the northern
Gulf through early Sun, then stall and weaken gradually through Mon.
Upper-level disturbances moving from W to E will maintain active
weather over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin,
except pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the
Bay of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun
into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile,
areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue
across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough across N Central America is helping to force fresh
to strong SE winds over the NW Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure gradient is producing only moderate or weaker trades. Seas
are 6-8 ft over the NW Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. No
significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean Sea
today. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are covering
the NW Caribbean Sea including the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist
through Sun, reaching near gale-force this evening into Sat morning
and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in
the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun night.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next
week. High pressure from the eastern Atlantic will ridge westward
Wed and Wed night while strengthening some. A tightening gradient
between the ridge and relatively lower pressure in the southwestern
Caribbean is expected to lead to increasing trade winds over most of
the central and eastern Caribbean at that same time. Meanwhile,
rather dense smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America
continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and is
reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak cold extends from 31N63W southwestward to the coast of
Florida near 27N80W. North of 27N east of the front to 60W, winds
are SW fresh with seas 5-7 ft. Scattered showers are occurring from
26N-31N west of 75W. Ridging north of the area along with low
pressure along the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing NE to E moderate
to locally fresh trades south of 20N west of 25W. Seas in this area
are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move slowly
eastward, and shift east of 55W early Mon. Active weather is
expected to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Fresh southerly
winds ahead of the front will continue through Fri afternoon, then
become moderate Fri night through Sat afternoon, then diminish
further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W
roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the
waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon and move
southeastward and weaken through late Tue. A residual trough may
linger from near 30N71W to the central Bahamas Wed and Wed night.
$$
CWL/JA