000
AXNT20 KNHC 300554
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Sep 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Philippe, at 30/0300 UTC, is near
17.6N 55.8W. Philippe is moving toward the SW, or 220 degrees, 
03 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The 
maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 
knots. The radius of tropical-storm force winds is: within 90 nm 
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in 
the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; 
and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea 
heights that are 12 feet or greater are: within 120 nm of the 
center in the NE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SE 
quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 
within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea 
heights are 16 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong 
is within 300 nm of the center in the SE semicircle. 

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest 
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at 
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Rina, at 30/0300 UTC, is near 20.4N 
48.8W. Rina is moving toward the NW, or 305 degrees, 10 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum 
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 50 knots. The 
radius of tropical-storm force winds is: within 120 nm of the 
center in the NE quadrant; within 130 nm of the center in the SE 
quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 
within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights 
that are 12 feet or greater are: within 150 nm of the center in 
the NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 
within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 150 nm 
of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 16 
feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 200 
nm of the center in the SE semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest 
Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at 
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered strong is within 90 nm to the east of the tropical wave
from 08N to 10N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 02N to 11N between 23W and 31W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border 
of Senegal/Guinea-Bissau, to 12N20W 09N30W 08N34W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N34W to 06N50W. Precipitation: scattered
strong is within 250 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/
ITCZ between 30W and 37W. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong is elsewhere from 05N to 11N between 34W
and 45W.  

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along 31N79W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through Florida along 29N/30N, to the coastal waters/the
coastal plains of the Gulf of Mexico, through southern
Louisiana, to east Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is to the northeast of the line that
runs from the coastal plains of south central Louisiana
to the Straits of Florida.

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 89W/90W
from 27N southward to the Yucatan Peninsula, to northern
Guatemala. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 90 nm on either side of the
surface trough from 23N southward to northern Guatemala.
is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Slight to moderate seas, and fresh easterly winds, are
in the north central Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas, and
moderate or slower winds, are elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across the
northern Gulf offshore waters N of 26N with moderate seas
through the forecast period, expanding to the central basin
Sun night through Wed night. Light to gentle winds and
slight seas are forecast elsewhere through Wed night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 89W/90W
from 27N southward to the Yucatan Peninsula, to northern
Guatemala. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 83W westward, and within 90 nm on
either side of the surface trough, from the Yucatan
Peninsula to Guatemala, Honduras, and the western sections
of Nicaragua. 

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
between Hispaniola and Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is between the Mona Passage 
and NW Cuba.

Slight to moderate seas are between 80W and the Windward
Passage. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 550 nm of the
center of Philippe in the NW quadrant. Some moderate or
slower winds that are on the western periphery of Philippe
are from 65W eastward. Fresh NE to E winds are within 
210 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between
the Mona Passage and 80W. Moderate NE to E winds are in
the NW corner of the area. Moderate or slower winds are
in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from 75W in Colombia
westward, beyond Costa Rica. No significant deep
convective precipitation is in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 30/0000 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN,
are: 0.51 in Guadeloupe.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.6N 55.8W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving southwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Philippe will move to 17.3N
56.0W Sat morning, 17.2N 56.4W Sat evening, 17.3N 56.9W
Sun morning, 17.8N 57.5W Sun evening, 18.7N 58.2W
Mon morning, and 20.2N 58.7W Mon evening. Philippe will
change little in intensity as it moves near 23.4N 58.9W
late Tue. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the
Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe 
will start to subside by the middle of next week. Mainly
moderate trade winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through
the weekend. Light to gentle winds are forecast basin-wide
Mon through Wed, except moderate to fresh trades developing
in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Wed.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details
about Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina.

A cold front passes through 31N36W to 30N40W, 30N50W, beyond 
31N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong is within 180 nm to the south of the cold front from
50W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are to the north of the line that runs
from the Windward Passage, to 28N70W and 30N56W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N20W.
Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward
from 30W eastward. A surface trough curves along 29N20W
23N18W 18N22W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate, are within 120 nm on either 
side of the line, from 16N24W in the Cabo Verde Islands, to
21N20W, to 26N16W, to 30N16W 32N20W 30N23W 28N22W 29N20W.

A surface ridge extends from a 27N34W 1018 mb high pressure 
center to 29N72W. Moderate to some fresh NE-to-E winds are from 
26N southward from 68W westward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are 
within 900 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from 40W 
eastward. Moderate winds are within 500 nm to the north of the 
ITCZ, on the southern side of T.S. Rina, between 40W and 50W. 
Fresh E winds are within 150 nm of the coast of South America 
between 50W and 60W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere to 
the south of T.S. Philippe. Moderate or slower winds are in the 
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 
the two tropical storms toward the north and the northwest, 
between 40W and 70W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the 
Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.6N 55.8W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving southwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Philippe will move to
17.3N 56.0W Sat morning, 17.2N 56.4W Sat evening,
17.3N 56.9W Sun morning, 17.8N 57.5W Sun evening,
18.7N 58.2W Mon morning, and 20.2N 58.7W Mon evening.
Philippe will change little in intensity as it moves
near 23.4N 58.9W late Tue. Rough seas generated from
the storm will impact the waters E of 65W through
at least the middle of next week. 

$$
mt