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423 
WTNT33 KNHC 290256
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITH
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 88.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued for
all of Louisiana, including Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Navarre Florida
* Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 88.7 West. Zeta is moving toward
the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). An even faster northeastward
motion is expected overnight through Thursday, then a rapid
east-northeastward motion is anticipated through Friday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move into southern Alabama 
soon and then move quickly across the southeastern eastern United 
States through Thursday before emerging offshore of Mid-Atlantic 
coast late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Further weakening is expected, and Zeta should
decay into a tropical storm overnight and into a non-tropical
gale-force low Thursday morning.  The low should become absorbed by
a frontal system over the western Atlantic on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).  Mobile Regional Airport recently;y reported sustained 
winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 91 mph (146 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...4-7 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to the Mouth of the Pearl
River...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected to
continue within the Warning areas near the northern Gulf Coast
overnight.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.  Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf
Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and east into the
southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of
southern Alabama and the western Panhandle of Florida.  An isolated
tornado or two is possible tomorrow across much of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake