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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory


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481 
WTNT31 KNHC 191451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...NESTOR LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES A
POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STORM SURGE STILL AFFECTING THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Indian
Pass, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather
radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.3 North,
longitude 86.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the
east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue this morning and early afternoon, followed by a motion
toward the northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast
track, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move inland over the
Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions
of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The
cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina
into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the
Florida coast, followed by slight weakening after the cyclone moves
inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center, mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A
private weather station at Bald Point on Apalachee Bay, Florida,
recently measured a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to
56 mph (91 km/h). Buoys just offshore the coast of west-central
Florida have been reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 50
mph (80 km/h) in some of the heavier squalls during the past couple
of hours.

A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola, Florida,
recently measured a water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High
Water.

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations
is estimated to be 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic
coast of the southeastern United States later today.

RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions
of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through midday in central
and northern Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over coastal
areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart