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Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Advisory


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000
WTNT24 KNHC 250252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA...AND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...
MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  77.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  77.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  77.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N  79.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.6N  81.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.3N  82.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N  83.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N  84.5W...WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.9N  84.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N  84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.6N  84.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N  77.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG