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Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171432
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

Raymond has degenerated into a remnant low with 25-kt winds.
Satellite images indicate that the circulation is elongated and that
the thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of minimum
pressure due to very strong wind shear. In addition, observations
from the Mexican Navy automatic station at Isla Socorro which is
located near Raymond indicate that winds are between 15 and 20 kt.

The low is moving northward around 14 kt, but this motion is
uncertain since the circulation is elongated and poorly defined.
Raymond's remnants are expected to move northward and then
north-northwestward and eventually become absorbed by a large
developing trough west of the Baja California peninsula in about 24
to 36 hours.

The combination of the remnants of Raymond and the developing
trough west of the peninsula will bring heavy rains into southern
portions of the Baja California peninsula over the next day or two.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

This is the last NHC advisory on Raymond. For additional information
about the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 19.1N 111.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  18/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1200Z 23.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila