Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260240
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

While Celia continues to maintain a relatively symmetric convective 
appearance on satellite imagery, the coldest convective cloud tops 
are gradually warming as the storm slowly succumbs to cooler ocean 
waters underneath. A blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates 
still support an initial intensity of 50 kt, though I suspect this 
remains generous and hopefully overnight scatterometer data can 
provide additional assessment of the wind-field around the storm. 
Sea-surface temperatures will continue gradually decreasing as the 
system moves into an increasingly stable environment. Thus, gradual 
weakening is expected to continue. The latest NHC forecast now 
anticipates Celia will lose its remaining convection in about 48 
hours, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The 
intensity forecast shows a bit faster rate of weakening, largely 
discounting the recent GFS solutions which unrealistically keep deep 
central convection near the center over a very unfavorable 
thermodynamic environment.

The center of Celia is moving west-northwestward at a bit faster 
pace, or 290/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same, as 
mid-level ridging should keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward 
heading. A turn westward at the end of the storm's life is 
anticipated as it becomes a shallow remnant low, steered primarily 
by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is nearly 
identical to the previous forecast, though now shows dissipation in 
120 hours. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 19.1N 112.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 19.4N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 19.9N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 20.4N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 21.0N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  28/1200Z 21.7N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0000Z 22.3N 124.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0000Z 23.0N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin