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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 220241
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019

Kiko is only producing a relatively small patch of deep convection
to the northeast of its center, the result of continued
southwesterly shear and the cyclone moving through what appears to
be a stable environment.  The initial intensity is held at 45 kt
based on the earlier ASCAT data, but it's possible the maximum
winds have decreased since then.  Given Kiko's structure and its
environment, some weakening is expected during the next day or so.
However, the cyclone is moving southwestward, toward slightly
warmer waters, and this could allow for some restrengthening in
36-48 hours, which is shown by many of the intensity models.
Another round of shear and cooler waters should lead to weakening
after 48 hours, and Kiko is expected to degenerate into a remnant
low by day 5, if not sooner.

Kiko is moving a little faster toward the west-southwest, or 240/7
kt.  An elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from
California to near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which
is forcing the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during
the next 36 hours.  After that time, the western portion of the
trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing
Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4.  Once a remnant low,
Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it
to turn back to the southwest.  Only small adjustments to the NHC
track forecast were made on this cycle, and it still depicts a
wave-like trajectory through day 5, as has been the case for
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 17.5N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 16.8N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 16.0N 134.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 16.5N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 18.8N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 19.2N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 18.1N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg