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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Forecast Discussion


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641 
WTPZ43 KNHC 120837
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018

For the first time since 14 August, the northeast Pacific has no
tropical cyclones. Paul has lacked organized deep convection for
over 12 hours and has therefore been declared a remnant low. The
initial intensity is still 30 kt, based on ASCAT data from around
0500 UTC which showed a few wind vectors between 25 and 30 kt, but
weakening should resume soon due to the lack of deep convection. The
remnant low is moving west at around 8 kt, and a west to
west-southwest motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next few days until dissipation occurs later this week.

This is the last NHC advisory on Paul. For additional information on
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 22.3N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  12/1800Z 22.4N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/0600Z 22.4N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/1800Z 22.4N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z 22.3N 131.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z 21.8N 132.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky