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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 100239
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

Kay has been devoid of deep convection just about all day (about the
past 15 hours), and it no longer meets the organized deep convection
criteria needed for a tropical cyclone.  Therefore, Kay is now
considered a post-tropical cyclone, and since all coastal tropical
storm warnings have been discontinued, this is the last advisory on
this system.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The low has now turned to the west-northwest, and a turn to the
southwest and then the south is expected this weekend and
early next week as the cyclone weakens while moving within the
low-level flow.

Even though Kay is no longer a tropical cyclone, this system is
still producing heavy rains across portions of northern Baja
California and southern California.  In addition, strong winds not
directly associated with Kay's core wind field are still occurring
across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern
Arizona. For more information on the wind hazard, see products
from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 31.3N 118.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  10/1200Z 31.4N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/0000Z 31.4N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1200Z 31.2N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0000Z 30.5N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1200Z 29.6N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z 29.0N 121.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi