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Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 262035
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012020
200 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020

The cyclone has lacked significant organized deep convection for at
least 10 hours, and the system is moving into increasingly more
stable air and over sub-25C deg C SSTs. Therefore, the depression
has been downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low. The initial
intensity is 25 kt is based on several 23-25 kt wind vectors located
n-e of the low-level center in a 1718 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. Although
the system may still produce some sporadic convection late tonight
during the convective maximum period, dry and stable air along with
strong westerly shear will likely prevent any appreciable convection
from persisting over the next day or so. This should cause the
remnant low to weaken and then open up into a trough in 36-48 hours.

The initial motion remains 305/08 kt. A substantial low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to gradually
nudge the shallow low toward the west-northwest later this
afternoon, followed by a westward motion tonight, with that motion
continuing until the system dissipates Monday night. The new NHC
track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system.  For additional information on the remnant low, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 16.2N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  27/0600Z 16.7N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/1800Z 17.1N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0600Z 17.3N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart