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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT45 KNHC 250840
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
800 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

Hermine's structure overnight has deteriorated further.  While
occasional intermittent bursts of deep convection are still 
occurring to the north of the elongated surface circulation, this 
convection lacks organization.  The system no longer meets the 
definition of a tropical cyclone and, therefore, is being declared 
a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on Hermine.

Strong southwesterly shear greater than 40 kt and a high
statically stable surrounding Saharan air mass should prevent the
regeneration of organized convection during the next several days.
The global models and the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance
agree that the remnant low will open up into a trough of low
pressure Tuesday, and the official forecast follows suit.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/6 kt. This 
general motion is expected to continue today while the cyclone 
moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge. 
Beyond Monday morning, the remnant low is forecast to turn toward 
the northwest and west-northwest in response to the above mention 
ridge building westward over the extreme eastern tropical Atlantic. 
The NHC forecast track is based on the various consensus aids and 
is similar to the previous advisory.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and
available on the web at 
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ 
metarea2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 23.6N  20.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  25/1800Z 24.3N  19.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0600Z 24.6N  20.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1800Z 24.9N  21.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts