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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT45 KNHC 160235
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

The tropical depression located near the Cabo Verde Islands has
become less organized over the past 6 hours. An ASCAT-A overpass at
2154 UTC showed that the depression still had a closed and
well-defined center, but the strongest winds were only 20-25 kt. A
subsequent ASCAT-B pass about 1 hour later showed slightly higher
winds but an elongated circulation. Furthermore, deep convection is
limited to a small area of showers located nearly 100 n mi to the
east of the depression's center. If its convection continues to
decrease, the system could become a remnant low later today.
Alternatively, if its circulation continues to become elongated, it
could soon open into a trough and dissipate. Either way, it seems
unlikely that the depression will remain a tropical cyclone for
long, and this shown by all of the models and the official forecast.

The depression has made a westward jog since the last advisory, but
a longer-term motion estimate is 300/09 kt. The westward jog
resulted in a substantial westward shift in the official forecast
track, but the system is still expected to move generally
west-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or two until it
dissipates. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, and the main source of uncertainty is just how quickly the
system will open into a trough.

The latest ECMWF deterministic forecast and few of its ensemble
members indicate that the cyclone could regenerate later this week.
However, most other models do not forecast regeneration and the
uncertainty is too high to justify explicitly showing this in the
official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 16.8N  23.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 17.7N  24.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 18.6N  25.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1200Z 19.6N  27.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z 20.8N  29.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky