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Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT45 KNHC 151432
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

Theta has run out of theta-e.  The cyclone has been without 
significant deep convection for many hours now and has been 
gradually spinning down today. It no longer meets the qualifications 
of a tropical cyclone, so this is the last advisory.  The initial 
wind speed is set to 25 kt per the latest scatterometer pass.  

The low is meandering this morning.  It is expected to be picked up 
to the north-northeast by the next trough over the northeastern 
Atlantic, along with an increase in forward speed.  The remnants of 
Theta should gradually lose strength due to strong shear, very dry 
air and little instability before dissipating in a day or two. 

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR
and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 31.5N  18.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  16/0000Z 31.9N  18.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1200Z 33.7N  17.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z 36.5N  16.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake