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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 230234
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

Chantal continues to survive the harsh thermodynamic and shear
environment of the central Atlantic by producing intermittent
small bursts of deep convection well to the east of the exposed
surface center.  No changes to the subjective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB this evening, and the initial intensity
is once again held at 30 kt.  Large-scale sinking air with low to
mid-level associated relative humidities less than 40 percent along
with increasing west-southwesterly vertical shear are expected to
weaken Chantal to a remnant low by Saturday, and dissipate in less
than 3 days.

The initial motion is estimated to be southeastward, or 135/6 kt,
around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical ridge over
the central Atlantic.  The global and ensemble guidance continue to
show an anti-cyclonic motion at a slower forward speed before the
system dissipates over the weekend.  The new NHC forecast follows
suit and is based on a compromise of the NOAA HCCA model and the
simple TVCA multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 37.8N  41.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 37.1N  41.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 36.1N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 35.6N  42.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 35.9N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts