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Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 120848
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has
become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast
of the United States.  The initial intensity has been increased to
55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional
increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h.  After
that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast
to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h.  The revised
intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is 065/25.  The cyclone should move very rapidly
toward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near
the end of the cyclone's life.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United
States can be found in products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from
eastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water,
flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell
very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours over
portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and
the Delmarva Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 38.0N  73.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  12/1800Z 40.4N  66.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  13/0600Z 43.8N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  13/1800Z 46.2N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/0600Z 47.0N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  15/0600Z 46.0N  11.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven