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Hurricane Zeta Forecast Discussion


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WTNT43 KNHC 290258
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The center of Zeta made landfall on the Louisiana coast south of 
Cocodrie at about 4 pm CDT with maximum sustained winds of about 95 
kt. Since then, the hurricane has raced across southeastern 
Louisiana and is now over southeastern Mississippi.  While the 
sustained winds have been coming down, the satellite presentation is 
actually not very degraded for a system that has been over land for 
this long, and there have been reports of 100-mph wind gusts during 
the past couple of hours. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt 
on the basis of radar velocities and the decay-SHIPS model.

The hurricane is accelerating tonight toward the northeast or
040/27 kt. While Zeta should continue to weaken due to land
effects, strong gusty winds are likely to occur near and east of the
center due to the cyclone moving rapidly northeastward, allowing 
these strong winds to spread well inland.  Little change was made 
to the intensity forecast.   Zeta should become extratropical and
merge with a front before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast,
eventually merging with a frontal boundary in a couple of days. The
official track forecast most closely follows a blend of the model
consensus and the GFS, and is faster than the last NHC track.

Note that the wind gust factor for this hurricane is higher than 
typical for a tropical cyclone, and that is reflected in the 
Forecast/Advisory product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  A dangerous storm surge is continuing along portions of the
Mississippi and Alabama coastline and will gradually subside in the 
early morning hours on Thursday.

2.  Dangerous hurricane conditions expected to continue for the 
next few hours near and along the Mississippi and Alabama 
coastlines.  Tropical storm conditions will also continue for 
portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and 
far western Florida Panhandle coasts.

3.  Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will spread well inland across portions of
southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas,
and southeastern Virginia overnight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast
forward speed.  Wind gusts could be especially severe across the
southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4.  Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of 
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio 
Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States 
near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, 
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 31.5N  88.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 12H  29/1200Z 35.5N  83.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/0000Z 39.5N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1200Z 42.5N  59.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake