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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 192033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020

A small low-level swirl that is apparently Wilfred's circulation
center was noted in late afternoon visible imagery.  The coldest
cloud tops are in a small area of bursting convection to the
northeast of the center with a ragged convective band noted to
the south and southwest. The latest objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates remain 35 kt, and that will be the
intensity for this advisory, but could be a bit generous.

Increasing westerly shear and a drying airmass along the forecast
track should result in weakening within 36 to 48 hours, and global
models show the cyclone dissipating by 60 h. However, given the
small size of the system, it wouldn't be surprising if the cyclone
weakened or dissipated sooner than shown here.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12. Wilfred should continue
west-northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours before turning
westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation. The new NHC
track forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the
consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 14.0N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 14.8N  41.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 15.6N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 16.0N  46.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 16.2N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan