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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 231446
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one
over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been
designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support
tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but
its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB
classification was a little higher.

Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the
low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep
convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly
Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is
located within a generally favorable environment for
intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo
becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The
official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows
Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued
strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were
made to the NHC intensity forecast.

The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the
location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone
has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt.
Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to be steered generally westward to
west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over
the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in
the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is
based heavily on HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 11.1N  24.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 11.5N  26.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 12.0N  28.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 12.5N  31.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 13.1N  34.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 14.6N  39.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 17.1N  43.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 20.5N  47.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky