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Remnants of Kirk Forecast Discussion


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900 
WTNT42 KNHC 290242
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Kirk Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Even though there still appears to be a circulation center in
satellite imagery, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane was
unable to find westerly winds that would support a closed
circulation.  Therefore, Kirk has degenerated into an open wave,
and this will be the last advisory.  The SFMR on the plane still
measured winds around 35 kt in the convection to the east of the
wave axis, and that will remain the initial intensity.

The wave will continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea
during the next few days, with its winds gradually decreasing due
to continued westerly shear.  Heavy rains are still possible over
portions of eastern Puerto Rico and St. Croix during the next day
or two while Kirk's remnants pass to the south.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 15.1N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg