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Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Forecast Discussion


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295 
WTNT42 KNHC 160234
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

Dry air and shear has prevented the redevelopment of deep convection
for more than 12 hours, and what little convection Beryl had early
this morning was not very organized.  As a result, the system has
become post-tropical and this will be the final NHC advisory.  The
initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a satellite intensity
estimate of 25-30 kt from TAFB.  Beryl is forecast to remain over
marginally warm SSTs in the Gulf Stream overnight, but shear and dry
air are expected to prevent organized deep convection from
returning.  After that time, the remnant low will be moving over
much colder waters and a gradual spin down is predicted.  The global
models indicate that the remnant low will dissipate near
southeastern Newfoundland on Tuesday.

Beryl is moving east-northeastward at a faster pace than before or
065/11.  The cyclone should turn northeastward and accelerate over
the next 24 hours as it becomes embedded within low- to mid-level
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough.  The
track models are in good agreement and the new NHC track forecast
is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 38.6N  62.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  16/1200Z 39.9N  60.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/0000Z 42.6N  57.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1200Z 45.5N  55.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown