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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 051438
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 05 2022

The depression continues to lose organization. Visible satellite 
imagery reveals an exposed low-level swirl displaced nearly 90 n mi 
west of its associated deep convection due to strong 
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial advisory 
intensity of 30 kt may be a little generous, and is based off a 
blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates. The shear affecting 
the depression is forecast to increase further, while the system 
ingests dry air to its west. This should disrupt significant deep 
convection from reforming near its low-level center. In fact, 
simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the 
deep convection will not return and the system should become a 
remnant low within the next 24 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
is unchanged from the previous one. However, the forecast now 
indicates that the depression will become a remnant low by 24 h.

The 12 h motion of the depression is about 295/8 kt. However, the 
low-level center has been moving nearly westward over the past 
several hours.  Most of the model guidance indicates a 
west-northwestward track to the south-southwest of a mid-level ridge 
over the next couple days until dissipation. The NHC track forecast 
has been adjusted to the left of the previous one and is on the 
left side of the guidance envelope, as it is assumed that the 
shallow low-level circulation is going to be steered more by the 
low-level flow than the models indicate. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 15.6N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 16.1N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 17.0N  35.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 18.1N  37.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto