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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FOPZ15 KNHC 180857
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)  17(41)   2(43)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  11(21)   2(23)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   2(16)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   2( 2)   8(10)  26(36)  18(54)   1(55)   X(55)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)

P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  13(26)   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

15N 105W       34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X  23(23)  22(45)   5(50)   2(52)   X(52)   X(52)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MANZANILLO     34  2  51(53)  12(65)   4(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)
MANZANILLO     50  X   9( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
MANZANILLO     64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

L CARDENAS     34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)  21(26)   7(33)   X(33)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   4(14)   X(14)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS