Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane Lane Wind Speed Probabilities


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


035 
FOPZ14 KNHC 181450
PWSEP4

HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142018               
1500 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120  
KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                           

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

10N 140W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 140W       34  2   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

10N 145W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

15N 145W       34  X   2( 2)  53(55)  27(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)  11(11)  29(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
15N 145W       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)

10N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  70(75)  10(85)   X(85)
15N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  42(42)  10(52)   X(52)
15N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)   8(32)   X(32)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  21(27)   4(31)
BUOY 51004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
BUOY 51004     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)

15N 155W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)  22(59)
15N 155W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  14(24)
15N 155W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)
18N 156W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
18N 156W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

21N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)

21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

HANA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)
BUOY 51002     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
BUOY 51002     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

15N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)

20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART