Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 212035
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

15N 100W       34  2  24(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH