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Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities


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964 
FONT15 KNHC 190851
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   1(14)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)

ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS