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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ema Forecast Discussion

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WTPA45 PHFO 140832

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ema Discussion Number   8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012019
1100 PM HST Sun Oct 13 2019

The low-level circulation center of Ema has been exposed since
around 13/1200Z, with only a few brief pulses of convection on the
periphery of the system since that time. The lack of persistent
deep convection in combination with continued strong vertical wind
shear of around 30 kt over the next day or two should continue to
weaken the system. As a result, Ema has been designated a
post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity has been held at 30
kt for this advisory, with the motion set at 345/15 kt. 

Ema is being steered toward the north-northwest between a mid-level
low to the west and a large sub-tropical ridge to the east. This
motion is expected to continue tonight, with Ema degenerating into a
trough on Monday. Little change in intensity is forecast through

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Ema. Additional information on the post-tropical remnant
low can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO
header FZPN40 PHFO.


INIT  14/0900Z 25.4N 168.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  14/1800Z 27.4N 169.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Jelsema