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Post-Tropical Cyclone Linda Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPA43 PHFO 201445
TCDCP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Linda Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122021
500 AM HST Fri Aug 20 2021

Linda's time as a tropical cyclone has come to an end. Infrared and 
VIIRS day-night satellite imagery depict an elongating low cloud 
swirl, and deep convection has been absent over the center for 
nearly 24 hours, thus Linda is deemed to be post-tropical. The 
initial intensity estimate of 35 kt for this advisory remains 
heavily influenced by a recent scatterometer pass that indicated 
winds to 40 kt north of the center.

The initial motion estimate is 280/15 kt, with Linda being steered 
by a persistent low- to mid-level ridge to the north. Tightly-
clustered track guidance indicates that the ridge will continue to 
drive the post-tropical remains of Linda toward the west, with a 
slight reduction in forward speed tonight and Saturday. The guidance 
has trended southward over the last couple of days, and the official 
forecast indicates that remnants of Linda will impact portions of 
the main Hawaiian Islands Sunday and Monday, in line with the 
corrected consensus guidance HCCA, and the GEFS mean. 

Compared to the recent rapid weakening, a relatively slow rate of 
decay of the wind field is expected over the next couple of days. 
As the system gradually spins down, gale force winds north of the 
center will be slow to diminish, due to the gradient between the 
high to the north and the remnant low. Some sporadic deep convection 
may also occur, but the combined effects of dry air in the mid- and 
upper-levels and increasing vertical wind shear will prevent 
regeneration into a tropical cyclone, and lead to system dissipation 
by day 4. This is supported by the reliable global models, as well 
as the intensity consensus IVCN.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane 
Center on Linda. Future information on this system can be found in 
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, on 
the web at http://weather.gov/hfo. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 20.3N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  21/0000Z 20.5N 146.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  21/1200Z 20.7N 148.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  22/0000Z 20.9N 150.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  22/1200Z 21.0N 152.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  23/0000Z 21.1N 154.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 21.3N 156.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard