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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a couple hundred miles east-
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A trough of low pressure located over portions of Central America
and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  This system and another disturbance
over the eastern Pacific are expected to produce heavy rains over
a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.  By late Wednesday, the system is forecast to emerge over the
Bay of Campeche and then turn northward, and environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
towards the end of the week when the system is over the western
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are expected to become
increasingly hostile over the system, and significant development of
this system appears unlikely while it moves westward at 15 to 20
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Cangialosi

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