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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located about 400 miles south of Nova Scotia, Canada.

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward
toward Central America, and some development is possible if the low
remains over water when it is near the coasts of Honduras,
Guatemala, and Belize on Monday and Tuesday.  Regardless of
development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of
Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over
portions of western Africa.  The wave is expected to move
west-northwestward over the next day or so and emerge off the
coast of Africa later this afternoon.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some additional development to occur
during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday and
Wednesday.  Strong upper-level winds should prevent additional
development by midweek.  Interests in and around the Cabo Verde
Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart




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