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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located near the Lesser Antilles, and on Subtropical
Storm Joyce, located a little less than a 1000 miles west-southwest
of the Azores.

1. A trough of low pressure located over the western Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While upper-level
winds are generally conducive for the development of a tropical
depression, the system only has about a day before it reaches the
western Gulf coast.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
Louisiana on Friday and Saturday.  Interests there should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late
this weekend or early next week.  Some gradual development is
possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Landsea

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