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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

200 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave several hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands has decreased during the past
few hours. This system is expected to move toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph with no significant development during the next
couple of days.  However, environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by early next
week. Interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
west of the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are not favorable, and significant
development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

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