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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little 
in organization since earlier today. Despite marginal environmental 
conditions, a tropical depression could form over the next day or so 
as the low meanders.  By late this weekend, environmental conditions 
are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development as 
the system moves northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the 
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well 
offshore of the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Bucci