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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND
EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF HIGH TERRAIN.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

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